Combat and Magic

[VballMichael]

This is not a complaint, just trying to understand some results that truly amazed me.
First, in combat, my 5 brigades of Witchlord troops (no attrition, high morale, good leaders) surprised an AN group of 2 brigades with high attrition and high morale. I threw a Level 10 earthquake and attacked on a 3. Basically killed 1 brigade. Earthquake by itself is like 11,000 points. So, are the AN troops with high attrition so tough that it cuts the damage to like 20%?
Second, the next turn the AN group and I were still sitting there. I did a 96 order with my Level 10, an earthquake with my 5, and something else with my 4. None of it happened. He did three 96 orders and they apparently went first ahead of my 96 order. His P3 killed my P10, his P4 killed my P5, and his P4 killed my P4. When I do the math, there is about a 1% chance of him going first and succeeding on all of those kills. Is it really likely that a P3 outdraws a P10 and kills him with one shot? Seems odd. And of course he did that thing that AN can do and stopped the fight from occurring.
Kudos to the AN on a well-played battle, but seriously, this seems odd.
Any thoughts or advice would be welcomed.
Thanks

[Lord Diamond]

Odd and enough to ruin your game. Wow.

[Acererak]

(UN) Thoughts. I lost a level 17 agent kidnapping an envoy. No ward, no guard, no nothing. The odds of that happening are less than a power 3 killing a power 10.

Here's what you need to know:
1) Is it likely? No.
2) Should it happen? Probably not.
3) Does what shouldn't happen or likely to happen occur in Alamaze? Yes. All the time.

That's the way the game plays.

Let us know when and where the funeral for Ry Vor is. I'd like to attend if possible.

[VballMichael]

Good to hear that about your agent dying. My allies and I were just commenting on how successful your agents have been. It seems like they never miss.
As to Ry Vor, no funeral. Any P10 who lets himself get outdrawn by a P3 is simply buried in the pauper's field. I guess the lesson learned is to do the magic protection thing any time wizards are across from each other. And for that first battle, I guess Chaos is crucial since level 10 magic cannot even take out 2 weak and damaged and surprised brigades.
I am fine with odds going weird, just two bad sets of odds in a row, plus a whole combination of odds that ends up at less than 1%, just frustrating.

[Lord Diamond]

It does feel like group to group combat has gotten less effective lately. My Giants have attacked the Gnomes twice, and both times the Gnomes got away with barely a scratch.

[DuPont]

Well, the only thing that is all that unlikely is the P3 killing the P10. The odds of that are quite low, but not impossible. Everything else there is just a 50/50 shot. It may be that all three of his wizards shot their 96 before yours - a 1 in 4 chance, but that's not all that unusual. And then the other wizards are just 50/50 as I say. It does sound like an unlucky turn, but I've had ones like those. They do tend to spoil one's lunch, but unless they happen consistently with a position, it's just bad luck.
What I really hate is when I get a good luck turn - then the turn has to be re-run for some damn reason and all my good luck turns to bad. That royally sucks!

[Cipher]

Regarding the kill wizard spells:
Without looking anything up (no game/turn# was provided), here are some basics:
There is no reason to believe that ALL of the AN wizards' spells went off before ANY of the WI wizards'.

From what was written above, it seems that this was the sequence:
Spell 1: #96 from AN P3, likely targeting W H (wizard, high = the P10)
Per the spell description there is a 15% (3/10 * .5) chance of the spell succeeding.
Spell 2: #96 from AN P4 (either) but could have been the WI P10 that no longer exists, likely with the same W H targeting (P5 at this point)
Per the spell description there is a 40% (4/5 * .5) chance of the spell succeeding.
Speel 3: #96 from AN P4 (but could have been the WI P10 or WI P5), same likely targeting (P4 at this point)
Per the spell description there is a 50% (4/4 * .5) chance of the spell succeeding.

Since the AN wizards appear to have all targeted the highest available opposing wizard, the luckiest results for him are that the first roll was < .15. The chances of the AN's spells going off first are all 50/50 - just as likely as not.
For the first spell there are 3 AN spells and 3 WI spells - 50/50 for which side of either would go first
After the first spell gets that success, there are 2 AN spells and 2 WI spells remaining - 50/50
After the second spell is successful there are 1 AN spell and 1 WI spell remaining - 50/50

Now, before any of this happens the odds of the AN getting all 3 of these 'wins' is .5 * .5 *. 5 = 12.5%
If you flipped a coin three times and they were all heads, how odd would you think that? Maybe just a little.
But if you flipped a coin 1000 times and there were heads three times in a row would you think that odd? at all?
Keep in mind there may have been Spell#96s executed for other kingdoms/wizards sprinkled throughout these.

For me the AN lucked out with a 1-in-7 shot on the first attempt - everything else was pretty much as likely as not.
Since they are pretty much as likely as not, no systemic issue presents itself.
If the WI player wants to have the results traced back through the log files, support@alamaze.co is the vehicle for that request.

Regarding the first battle
From the information presented:
The WI is going to bring Presence from P10, P5, P4 and the P10 earthquake spell.
The AN is going to divide this damage by it's defensive value, a function of the group composition, leadership, morale and the Presence of his P4, P4 and P3.
Without the values from the battle logs in front of me, I can only guess - but my guess would be that the group's default retreat threshold (no combat order to direct this by the King was used since the group was surprised) will easily be exceeded by this damage and the AN is an excellent retreater (kingdom discipline, good cavalry %) but the damage was not enough to overcome all of the group's strength.
The damage was likely in excess of 1 AN brigade's strength but must have been less than the full value of the group.
The new brigade elmination routine would likely have cleared the remaining troops from the group - but this is not the same as destroying the group - the figures will remain unless the group is actually overwhelmed in combat.

Strategically, the WI chose not to Summon Death and clear out the AN troops on the first turn, but didn't cast Chaos to try and keep the AN group in the battle as long as possible (but maybe the AN had a Warlord in the group). If clearing out the AN troops was not the goal, then I wonder why the WI didn't take advantage of the surprise to remove the AN wizards, which with 2 turns in the same area, would likely have provided all the results desired.

[Cipher]

What I get from this: there is no reason to train a wizard past P7, and combat damage magic is to be avoided.

Unless the first roll had been a .19, in which case the P10 would have saved the wiz, but a P7 would still have been killed.
(3/7 * .5 = .214)

I will admit that I rarely raise wizards that high, usually the full compliment of destroy PC spells is the end of the line for what I'd use wizards for, but re: combat magic - it is ALL situational, and likely impacted by what combination of spells are actually cast.

[VballMichael]

Thanks for the clarifications. I did not contact support because I suspect everything happened as programmed. Was just trying to understand whether this was normal (though low odds). I have learned a couple of things from all of this.
One question, though. I did contemplate using the Destroy Brigades spell, but since that occurs before combat, I feared this would kill the brigades and create a patrol, thereby avoiding any surprise combat. Is that accurate?
As for the rest, I thought my magic and soldiers with surprise would entirely wipe the group. Had I known it would not, then I certainly would have done as suggested, and cast three 96 orders from ambush, then hit the group the following turn.
Thank you

[Ry Vor]

As many of you know, Cipher has just completed (after the battle discussed here was fought) the new code for brigade elimination. With the new routine, the AN would have been eliminated. Soon we will have new code for leadership and wizard death chances. The characters in the AN group almost certainly would be eliminated if this was already in place, as casualties to the group directly effect the chance of leader/wizard death.

Some of you have already noticed that now brigades are eliminated whereas before they would continue with very high attrition. I will start a new thread on that soon.

Alamaze will always be evolving. I didn't bring it back to do the same thing that was done over the previous 15 years.